Shipcost Lab · CBAM

CBAM Import Cost Calculator — EU 2026–2034

Project your annual CBAM certificate liability and the 2026 → 2034 phase-in exposure for cement, iron & steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen imports into the EU under Regulation (EU) 2023/956. Free, no signup, computed from a pinned versioned dataset.

Importing 1,000 t/year of hot-rolled steel from China (CN 7208, indicative default 2 tCO2/t) owes about €3,900 in CBAM certificates in 2026 — only 2.5% of embedded emissions are chargeable while EU ETS free allocation still covers 97.5%. The same flow owes about €75,660 in 2030 and €156,000 in 2034, when free allocation reaches 0%, at the pinned EU ETS price of €78/tCO2. The definitive period applies since 1 January 2026; the first annual declaration is due 30 September 2027.

Chargeable share of embedded emissions, 2026–2034 (free-allocation phase-out, Art. 10a(1a) Directive 2003/87/EC)
YearFree allocationChargeable shareSteel, €/t (CN 7208 default, €78/tCO2)
202697.5%2.5%€3.90
202890%10%€15.60
203051.5%48.5%€75.66
203226.5%73.5%€114.66
20340%100%€156.00

Last updated: 2026-06-11 · Data verified: 2026-06-11 against: Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (CBAM) — EUR-Lex · Directive (EU) 2023/959 — free-allocation phase-out, Art. 10a(1a) — EUR-Lex · European Commission — CBAM portal (DG TAXUD)

Import shipment

Net annual CBAM liability (2026)

€3,900

€3.90 per tonne effective cost

dataset cbam-2026-06.2 · verified 2026-06-11

Phase-in liability ledger 2026 – 2034

  1. €3,900
    2026
  2. €7,800
    2027
  3. €15,600
    2028
  4. €35,100
    2029
  5. €75,660
    2030
  6. €95,160
    2031
  7. €114,660
    2032
  8. €134,160
    2033
  9. €156,000
    2034
Show the calculation
Embedded emissions (tCO2 / tonne)
2
Total embedded emissions (tCO2)
2,000
Free-allowance factor
97.5%
Chargeable emissions (tCO2)
50
EU ETS price used (EUR / tCO2)
€78.00
Gross certificate cost (EUR)
€3,900
Origin carbon-price deduction (EUR)
€0
Net annual liability (EUR)
€3,900
  • • Using an indicative EU-wide fallback emission value for CN 7208 (2 tCO2/t, direct emissions only for iron & steel / aluminium / hydrogen). The legally applicable defaults are country- and product-specific under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621 (with a 10% markup in 2026) and may differ materially — confirm the value for your origin, or supply verified actual emissions.
  • • Using pinned EU ETS weekly-average price EUR 78/tCO2 (dataset cbam-2026-06.2, last verified 2026-06-11).

Estimate only. Not a CBAM declaration, customs declaration, or tax advice.

How the calculation works

  1. Pick the CN code and origin country. EU / EEA / Swiss origins are exempt. The CN list here is a subset of Annex I — a code missing from this estimator may still be in CBAM scope.
  2. Choose an indicative default emission value or supply your verified Annex IV figure. For iron & steel, aluminium and hydrogen (Annex II goods) only direct emissions count. Enter your annual import volume in tonnes (MWh for electricity).
  3. We multiply embedded emissions × (1 − free-allocation factor) × EU ETS price. Free allocation falls from 97.5% in 2026 to 95% (2027), 90% (2028), 77.5% (2029), 51.5% (2030), 39% (2031), 26.5% (2032), 14% (2033) and 0% in 2034 — the schedule is front-loaded after 2028, not linear (verified 2026-06-11 against the consolidated ETS Directive).
  4. Any documented carbon price paid in the country of origin is deducted, capped at the gross certificate cost. The net liability is your annual CBAM cost.

Worked examples

Both examples use dataset cbam-2026-06.2 (verified 2026-06-11) and the pinned EU ETS weekly-average price of €78/tCO2 (verified 2026-06-09). Reproduce them in the calculator above, then swap in your own volumes.

1,000 t/year of hot-rolled steel from China (CN 7208)

At the indicative default of 2.0 tCO2/t (direct emissions only — steel is an Annex II good), 1,000 t embeds 2,000 tCO2. In 2026 free allocation still covers 97.5%, so only 50 tCO2 are chargeable: 50 × €78 = €3,900 a year, or €3.90 per tonne. The same flow in 2030 (free allocation 51.5%) has 970 tCO2 chargeable — €75,660 a year (€75.66/t) — and in 2034 (0% free) the full 2,000 tCO2 cost €156,000 (€156/t) at a flat ETS price.

2,000 t/year of cement clinker with a documented origin carbon price (CN 2523)

At the 0.83 tCO2/t default, 2,000 t embeds 1,660 tCO2. In 2028 (free allocation 90%) 166 tCO2 are chargeable: gross cost 166 × €78 = €12,948. If you can document a carbon price of €20/tCO2 effectively paid in the country of origin, €3,320 is deducted, leaving a net annual liability of €9,628 — €4.81 per tonne imported.

Frequently asked questions

Who has to pay CBAM?
EU importers (or their authorised CBAM declarants) of in-scope goods — cement, iron & steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen — listed in Annex I of Regulation (EU) 2023/956. Imports from EU, EEA and Swiss origins are exempt. A 50-tonne de-minimis applies to small importers, but it is cumulative across all your CBAM goods per calendar year and does not cover electricity or hydrogen (Reg (EU) 2025/2083, verified 2026-06-11).
When do CBAM certificates have to be bought?
The definitive period started 1 January 2026. The first annual declaration — covering 2026 imports — is due by 30 September 2027, with certificates surrendered against the verified embedded emissions of the goods. Certificate prices follow the Commission's methodology: the average closing price of EU ETS auctions for each calendar week, so the bill depends on when in the year you buy.
Why does the liability grow so sharply between 2026 and 2034?
Free allocation under the EU ETS is phased out in parallel (Art. 10a(1a) of the revised ETS Directive): 97.5% of embedded emissions are still covered free in 2026, 51.5% in 2030, and 0% in 2034 — with the steepest cuts between 2029 and 2031. The chargeable share — and therefore the certificate bill — grows each year even if your import volume and the ETS price stay flat.
Can a carbon price already paid in the origin country be deducted?
Yes. A carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin, when documented, reduces the number of certificates to surrender — capped at the gross certificate cost. Enter it in the optional origin carbon price field to see the net effect.
How much does CBAM cost per tonne of steel in 2026?
Using the indicative default of 2.0 tCO2/t for hot-rolled flat steel (CN 7208) and the pinned EU ETS price of €78/tCO2 (verified 2026-06-09), only 2.5% of embedded emissions are chargeable in 2026 — about 0.05 tCO2 per tonne, i.e. roughly €3.90 per tonne imported. The same tonne costs about €75.66 in 2030 and €156 in 2034, when free allocation is fully phased out. These are planning figures from dataset cbam-2026-06.2 (verified 2026-06-11): the legally applicable defaults for the definitive period are country- and product-specific under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621, and the ETS price moves weekly.
Should I use default emission values or actual verified emissions?
The defaults in this estimator are indicative EU-wide fallbacks for planning. The legally applicable definitive-period defaults are set per country and product by Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621 and carry a 10% markup in 2026 (rising in later years) — they are deliberately conservative. If your supplier's installation reports verified actual emissions under Annex IV of Regulation (EU) 2023/956, those usually come in below the marked-up defaults, which directly lowers your certificate bill. For iron & steel, aluminium and hydrogen (Annex II goods) only direct emissions count in the definitive period — indirect electricity emissions are out of scope for those sectors (verified 2026-06-11 against the Commission's CBAM guidance).
Which EU ETS price does this calculator use?
The pinned EU ETS weekly-auction average of €78/tCO2, last verified 2026-06-09 (dataset cbam-2026-06.2). CBAM certificate prices track the average of EU ETS auction closing prices per calendar week, so the price you actually pay depends on the week you buy. Use the override field to stress-test scenarios: at €100/tCO2, the 2030 steel example above rises from €75,660 to €97,000 a year.

Methodology & sources

Last updated: 2026-06-11 — page copy, worked examples and FAQ.

Data verified: 2026-06-11 against the European Commission CBAM portal (dataset cbam-2026-06.2). EU ETS reference price €78/tCO2 verified 2026-06-09.

Where these numbers come from

Every figure traces to a primary source:

  • Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (CBAM) — Annex I scope, Annex II direct-emissions-only goods, Art. 31(2) CBAM factor; phase-out schedule per Art. 10a(1a) Directive 2003/87/EC as amended by Directive (EU) 2023/959.
  • Regulation (EU) 2025/2083 (Omnibus I) — 50 t cumulative de-minimis for small importers (does not cover electricity or hydrogen).
  • Default emission values shown here are indicative EU-wide fallbacks. The legally applicable definitive-period defaults are country- and product-specific under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621 (with a 10% markup in 2026) — always confirm the value for your origin before filing.
  • EU ETS weekly auction average (Commission CBAM certificate price methodology).

The dataset is versioned and reviewed when the Commission updates default values, the phase-out schedule, or the certificate-price methodology. The exact dataset version and verification date are shown next to every result.

This is an estimate, not advice

The CBAM definitive period started 1 January 2026 with the first annual declaration due 30 September 2027. Liability depends on the verified embedded emissions of each consignment, the EU ETS auction price on the certificate-purchase date, and any documented carbon price paid in the country of origin. Always confirm against the EU CBAM registry, your authorised declarant, and Regulation (EU) 2023/956 + Implementing Regulation 2023/1773 before filing.

Related Shipcost Lab tools

CBAM is only one line of an EU landed cost. These tools cover the adjacent steps of the same import:

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